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Commodity Collateralized Lending

Each trading day our models generate thousands of forward price-path simulations across three horizons that directly serve collateral-valuation and loan-pricing needs

Numin provides specialized, daily-updated probabilistic forward price forecasts for every major physical commodity used as loan collateral: crude oil, refined products, natural gas, base metals (copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc), precious metals (gold, silver, platinum), iron ore, grains (corn, soybeans, wheat), softs, and containerized bulk commodities.

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Daily Forecast

Intraday to 5-day direction probabilities, expected trading ranges, and volatility bands for real-time margin monitoring and intraday collateral calls.

Weekly Forecast

1–13 week forward curves with full P10/P50/P90 confidence intervals, used for weekly mark-to-market and advance-rate adjustments.

Monthly/Strategic Forecasts

3–36 month probabilistic price decks purpose-built as the primary input for initial loan structuring, covenant setting, and long-term facility sizing.

Direct Application to Collateral Valuation and Loan Pricing

Lenders, specialty finance companies, and trading houses use these forecasts to replace static or consensus curves with continuously refreshed, high-resolution price distributions, dramatically improving risk-adjusted pricing and capital efficiency

Stress-Test LTV With Forward Price Simulations

Determine accurate initial loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and advance rates by stress-testing collateral value against thousands of realistic future price paths.

Dynamic Borrowing-Base Formulas That Update Automatically

Set dynamic borrowing-base formulas and margin triggers that automatically adjust to the latest forward price probabilities instead of lagging monthly marks.

Scenario-Driven LGD and Default Risk Haircuts

Calculate expected loss-given-default (LGD) and probability-of-default haircuts under multiple downside scenarios, enabling tighter pricing on high-quality deals.

Full-Lifecycle Collateral Coverage Forecasting

Generate forward-looking collateral coverage ratios for the entire life of the facility (6 months to 5+ years), eliminating the chronic under- or over-collateralization that arises from stale pricing decks.

Consistent Pricing Across Commodities and Inventory Types

 Rank and price facilities across different commodity types or borrower inventories using a single, consistent forward-price methodology.

These capabilities allow lenders to:

  • Safely extend higher advance rates on the same collateral without increasing risk
  • Reduce unexpected margin calls and forced liquidations during volatile periods.
  • Price deals more competitively while maintaining or improving risk-adjusted returns.

Delivery Options

Collateral Valuation & Lending Delivery

Institutions using Numin’s collateralized-lending suite consistently achieve tighter advance rates, lower loss-given-default, and superior pricing power across the commodity complex

  • Real-time REST/WebSocket API with dedicated collateral-valuation endpoints
  • Daily pre-market collateral monitor PDF highlighting commodities with the highest near-term downside risk
  • Weekly and monthly borrowing-base scenario reports with full price-path distributions
  • Custom Excel/Python valuation toolkit that ingests facility terms and automatically outputs LTV surfaces, margin triggers, and coverage forecasts